An Unfinished Revolution for Egypt

The Jasmine Revolution or Arab Spring which spread over the entire Arab world in December, 2010 brought sweeping changes in the region. Authoritarian Regimes were toppled by people’s intervention in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. It also led to historic massive protests in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait etc.  In Egypt, the most populous and powerful Arab nation, the uprising in 2011 which made Tahrir Square the symbol of protest brought an end to the autocratic rule of Hosni Mubarak. Yearning for democracy, this uprising paved way for democratic elections. However in absence of a strong organised opposition a Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi emerged victorious with the help of other parties. Most progressive voters and smaller progressive groups rallied behind Morsi to defeat the Army backed Mubarakist candidate as nobody wanted anymore “Mubarakism without Mubarak”.

             But after just a year or so the same people rose against the Morsi led government. The movement officially hit TV screens around the world on 30^th June when millions took to the streets expressing frustration and seeking change. Popularly named the June 30 Movement, its aim was to thwart the Muslim Brotherhood’s plans of erecting a single party autocracy in the country. In both the uprisings, the immediate objective of overthrowing authoritarian regimes was achieved with great speed. But both these uprisings fell short of bringing any systemic changes. The beneficiaries of both were forces on the right- firstly the Muslim Brotherhood and secondly, the Army. The common people continued to be bypassed. No changes in the ground level.

           Although hailed as popular revolutions, these movements were not revolutionary as they fell short of introducing fundamental changes in the line of Nasser’s 1952 Free Officers’ Coup. Anything remotely resembling Nasser’s redistribution of land policy, abolishing feudal policies or taking an anti imperialist stand in the international arena was missing from both the demands as well as achievements of these two uprisings. The first uprising ousting Mubarak was incomplete as it failed to fulfil the revolution’s objective of “bread, dignity and social justice”. Both the uprisings did make way for Western intervention and introduction of disturbed democracy similar to those in Iraq and Afghanistan.  

           Morsi seemed to be a safe choice for the West. After the toppling of Mubarak’s regime, instead of working for democratising institutions and putting in place a democratic Constituent Assembly which would represent voices from different factions, immediate elections were held. As Vijay Prashad points out, under Mubarak, the Left was systemically dismantled. Their activities were under a ban but Muslim Brotherhood continued to organise in mosques. And in elections the Brotherhood or Ikhwan as known in Arabic could take the greatest political advantage because of their organisational strength.

            Morsy after coming to power forgot that anti-Mubarakists and various strands of left and Nasserists backed him in the elections. Despite winning by a narrow margin, he broke his promise of inclusive governance. He tried to safeguard the interest of Brotherhood. He imposed a more Islamist Constitution on the country. His Constitution continued to safeguard the interests of the Army as well. Poor economic and political management along with a constant grab of power pushed people again to the streets. The basic problems which were deeply entrenched were not solved.

          There was no major delinking in the administration of the country as even during Mubarak’s regime the Brotherhood enjoyed a competitive collaboration with the regime. As Aijaz Ahmed points out, under Mubarak the Brotherhood was allowed to function till the time it did not pose a direct threat to Mubarak. While some would be sent off to jail from time to time, there was no crackdown in the real sense of the word.  

          Brotherhood also succeeded in gaining the approval of western powers as since Truman Doctrine, political Islamism has been constantly used to fight against Communism. The United States- Saudi Alliance dates back to the days of Roosevelt. Islamist factions have enjoyed western encouragement time and again as a containment policy for Communism. The Mujahideen in Afghanistan is an apt example.

                Morsi after coming to power alienated everyone. He undermined the judiciary by bringing down the retirement age of judges and filling the posts with his own people. He also undermined the legislature by calling the ceremonial upper house as the real Parliament. Morsi’s actions turned the nation into a quasi-theocratic state. The uprising against his regime which was triggered by a massive signature campaign (over 22 million signatures) spearheaded by the Tamarod movement is justified as they could see shadows of Mubarak’s authoritarianism in Morsi. Tamarod claimed to be inheriting the spirit of 2011’s movement and hence it did not endorse the recent release of Hosni Mubarak from prison.

                 The Army under General Abdal Al Fattah-Sisi stepped in because Morsi failed to fulfil the “hope for a national consensus”. The crackdown on pro Morsi supporters has been claimed as one of the worst episode of extra-judicial killing in the country’s recent history. The Morsi regime’s hands since the beginning were full with administrative problems which needed long term structural changes as solutions. But instead Morsi indulged in monopolising power at the cost of dangerous political polarisation. The army’s intervention did have a popular backing because of these shortcomings.

             The West tends to reduce choices between the moderate Islamists and their Radical Cousins when the issue is Arab countries. But such a blinkered view overlooks the presence of the large number of liberal and smaller numbers of Left Parties, Workers’ Unions who took active part in the uprisings. The movement at this moment is too fragmented and has no ideological plank giving way to the better organised and highly consolidated forces- the Brotherhood and the Army. The movement must organise and articulate its politics in a proper way. In case there is no space for progressive forces to make headway in Egypt’s politics, the country will keep on vacillating between the Army and Islamist Rightwing Parties.

          The Army which is pushed to the centre stage of political power again and again is expected to act as a neutral referee. While all parties are refraining from calling this oust a military coup which would jeopardise Egypt’s billion dollar aid, overthrowing a democratically elected government looks like a setback to civilian democracy. Sisi talked about a technocratic transitional government and a politically diverse committee to draft a Constitution. Although he denies Army’s interest in politics, the Army must fulfil the aspiration of common Egyptians of laying down the basis for a better future and a working civilian democracy. Failing so, the people of Egypt with their new-found revolutionary zeal will come out in the streets again and again.